Tech

What to Expect From Virtual Reality in 2016

There is big appetite for a new generation of VR gadgets, but it will take time to prove their worth. 

For years virtual reality has been little more than a novelty, but in 2016 the tech industry will launch a huge campaign to make it part of everyday life. The next generation of immersive reality devices from companies like Sony and Microsoft are among the most highly anticipated devices of next year, and businesses ranging from fashion to film are considering the possibilities of the advancing technology.

The gadgets expected to go on sale during the first half of 2016 include the Oculus Rift, the HTC Vive, the PlayStation VR headset and the augmented-reality Microsoft HoloLens, which allows the wearer to view images on top of their real-life field of vision. These headsets won't start a revolution overnight, though. Developers are eager to test the graphics power of these devices but it will likely take them until 2017 to create a wide range of programs to make the technology an everyday tool, says Brian Blau, a research director at market analysis firm Gartner.

The next generation of devices will create an even more immersive experience. The HoloLens and the HTC Vive use cameras to track how the user walks around the room and move the simulation along with the headsets, offering programmers great potential to create a real-time virtual atmosphere.Virtual reality has the potential to change daily life the way smartphones and social media did – one big reason why Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg spent $2 billion to acquire Oculus. The Facebook-funded company has already released theOculus Social app, which allows people who connect through their smartphones on the Samsung Gear VR to chat with other users while watching films together in a 360-degree video atmosphere. Oculus Story Studio has also begun making short films using virtual reality and is pitching the new technology to film studios.

"It will be a great year for virtual reality in 2016, but it also going to be a big year for experimentation and figuring out what sticks," Blau says.

The appetite for the new devices is already strong ahead of their debuts. The Consumer Electronics Show, which begins on Jan. 4, will open its first augmented reality section top showcase, and the event is expected to have 77 percent more exhibitors showcasing virtual reality compared with last year's convention.

Sales of virtual reality devices are expected to reach $1.1 billion in 2016 and jump to $2.7 billion by 2020, according to IHS Technology, which predicts that there will be 38 million virtual reality headsets in use worldwide by 2020.

The Microsoft HoloLens sits on display at a media event for new Microsoft products on Oct. 6 in New York City.

Video game players are expected to be early adopters of this new wave of virtual reality: Oculus Rift will come with a controller for the Xbox and PlayStation VR will be designed to work with Sony's rival console. Virtual reality has failed to live up to its hype in the past, however. Nintendo's Virtual Boy attempted to forge a new frontier in video games but was discontinued in 1996 after lackluster sales.

Consumers are more prepared for the immersive devices this time around, says J.P. Gownder, a vice president and principal analyst at Forrester Research. The Internet has changed people's entertainment habits, a more tech-savvy audience has a range of Wi-Fi connected products and improved graphics technology will create a better simulation in the headsets, he says.  

"There will probably always be a proportion of the population that has trouble with 'VR nausea' no matter what," he says. "By minimizing the lag between the movement in your head and what you experience in the goggles they are able to address that issue for most people."One challenge for headset makers is how to create a virtual world without triggering motion sickness for the user. While companies like Oculus and HTC claim to have solved this design flaw Gownder says it will remain a problem for some.

The price for these new devices will be another factor in how fast the market for simulated reality takes off, so developers are likely to use them before the average consumer. This is especially true for the Microsoft HoloLens augmented reality visor, the most advanced gadget slated for release which is unique because it is a miniature computer built into a headset – and costs $3,000 for test models aimed at application developers. That price will go down eventually but businesses are likely to build demand for these new products by owning the headsets for use by their customers, Gownder predicts.

Microsoft's new cloud computing strategy focuses on business customers rather than everyday consumers, so it is fitting that " HoloLens will be a very business-driven device in 2016," he adds.

Nintendo's failed Virtual Boy is a cautionary tale of relying on hype to market virtual reality.

While gaming and media are "obvious applications" for virtual reality, Mike Zucconi, a spokesman for HTC, tells U.S. News that sectors including education, communication and design are expected to use the software as entertainment companies debut more immersive video and games.

"Outside of the gaming industry we are also working with partners in the retail, education, health and automotive industries to develop VR content," Zucconi says. "Audi will use Vive in flagship dealerships so that customers can go on virtual test drives in a fully immersive environment."

Chevrolet has also used Oculus to showcase its cars to customers by depicting a drive on exotic virtual terrain like the mountains of New Zealand.

Numerous industries are already experimenting with 360 degree video and could take their services a step further once new virtual reality devices launch. Marriott has begun using 360 video headsets to offer guests at certain hotels immersive virtual travel experiences that were filmed in the Andes Mountains in Chile, an ice cream shop in Rwanda and in the streets of Beijing.

Fashion is another sector that has used existing immersive technology and could be interested in the new headsets, Gownder predicts. Dior has used virtual reality at its boutiques to let people see behind the scenes at fashion shows and Yves Saint Laurent used the Google Glass augmented reality visor to demonstrate makeup techniques.Lowe's offers a service called its Holoroom in certain stores to help people visualize what a home improvement project will look like with the help of Google Cardboard and Oculus headsets. Gownder says real estate clients of Forrester have expressed interest in using 360-degree video to showcase pre-built condominiums by enabling people to see a simulated view of the home they want to buy.

Blau predicts that by the end of 2016 there will likely be "a slew of content" for 360 video in a number of different businesses, but he says time will tell how fast consumers will embrace more advanced virtual reality as part of their daily life.

"This is still relatively new," he says. "There is a lot of hype to live up to."